Viridian Chart Of The Week: Even In A Correcting Market, Positive Earnings Surprises Are Rewarded

  • The blue bar in the graph shows the percentage by which 4th quarter EBITDA exceeded consensus analyst estimates as reported by FactSet for each of the seven top MSOs that have reported. The orange line shows the next day percentage change of the stock price less the percent change of the North American Index. This netting was done in order to isolate the impact of the earnings announcement away from the impact of movements in the overall cannabis stock market.

  • The first striking fact is that six of the seven companies beat analysts' estimates. In the days prior to Reg FD, this would not have been surprising as it was common for investor relations officers to “nudge” analysts' estimates in the “right” direction. Nowadays, this is less common, and cannabis earnings have been known to be somewhat opaque. Only AYR, underperformed analyst’s expectations possibly due to the difficulty …

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