What does the transition from medical to recreational sales look like for an emerging market?
In a recent report, Headset analyzed data from real-time sales to identify patterns in US markets that have made this transition, looking into unifying trends between them.
According to the report, “These universal trends may be used to better forecast sales patterns in upcoming legal markets such as New York, New Jersey, and Montana as they make the transition from medical to recreational in the next year”.
In any newly opened adult-use market, recreational sales can be expected to realize incredible growth over the first several years after legalization. For example, sales in Illinois have grown by 226% from $39.2 million when they first began in January 2020 to $127.8 million in July 2021.
Medical sales may continue to grow or stagnate, but their proportional relevance within the total market will certainly decrease as recreational sales grow.
After the initial tumult of rapid recreational growth, the proportion of total sales to medical cannabis can be expected to settle somewhere between ten and twenty percent in medical and recreational markets.
Recreational customers and medical patients tend to choose individual products that are similarly …